BCS National Championship Game
Monday, January 8, 2007
8:00 PM
Fox-Thom Brennaman (play by play), Barry Alvarez and Charles Davis (experts), Chris Myers (sidelines)
Advantage/Disadvantage
OSU scores 36.3/game, only allows 10.4 points.
Florida scores 28.8, allows 13.5 points/game.
- Advantage OSU
OSU rushes 180 yards/game
Florida rushes 160 yards/game
- Advantage OSU
OSU passes 229 yards/game
Florida passes 237 yards/game
- Advantage Florida
OSU has thrown 66% with 31 touchdowns and five interceptions
Florida has thrown 63% with 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions
- Advantage OSU
OSU has fumbled 17 times and lost it 11 times
Florida has fumbled 25 times and lost it 10 times
- Close to even in lost fumbles
OSU allows 93.5 yards/game rushing
Florida allows 74.5 yards/game
- Advantage Florida
OSU allows 273 total yards/game
Florida allows 268 yards/game
- Small Advantage Florida
OSU converts 51% of 3rd downs and 70% of 4th downs
Florida converts 43% of 3rd downs and 47% of 4th downs
- Advantage OSU
OSU has over three penalties/game
Florida has over eight penalties/game
- Advantage OSU
What to Expect
Both teams have had some time off, so expect some early turnovers and penalties. Due to Florida's high average of over 8 turnovers/game I think OSU will benefit off some early Florida mistakes. Florida does have more passing yards on average, but they also throw more interceptions. QB Chris Leak averages an interception/game, and he always had one when they played ranked teams. I don't think Florida's defensive backs can handle the number of talented receivers OSU will line-up. Florida cornerback Ryan Smith and safety Reggie Nelson have both proved they can defend and intercept the ball, but the talent drop-off after them is steep. OSU will run the ball early to test the Florida defense, but overall OSU will run a balanced offense of passing and running. Florida will have to pull out a linebacker and add a defensive back anytime OSU has three or more receivers. Look for Troy to run or fake the pass and hand it off the Pittman or Wells in some of these situations. Florida's wildcard will be freshman Tim Tebow. As mentioned earlier, he will come in for short yardage situations, but the spread option employed by Urban Meyer could give OSU some trouble early and cause some adjustments in personnel. The Buckeye defense needs to keep pressure on Chris Leak, as he is prone to forcing some bad passes. Florida has a weak running game, and their most productive running back, Wynn, has fought injuries for most of the season. Florida has recently claimed to be confident in their place kicker Chris Hetland, but in December Urban Meyer threatened to replace the kicker for the bowl game. For a struggling kicker that vote of no confidence doesn't help. The Buckeyes are very comfortable playing games in the Phoenix area, as exhibited in their recent trips to Tempe. The fifth year seniors were on the sidelines as red-shirt freshman when the Buckeyes beat Miami for the title in 2003. These players want their own National Championship, and they won't let the team down. Troy Smith plays his best in big games, and this one is the biggest of his college career. Look for Ohio State to pull away from Florida late in the second quarter. Florida doesn't need to worry about their place kicker in the second half, because it will take more than a field goal to win this one.
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