What to Expect

There are two pieces of recent history to consider, Tressel is 1-4 in games after a bye weekend and OSU has outscored NW 160-24 in the last three games. The two teams have comparable statistics with OSU averaging 24.6 points/game and NW averaging 26.2 points/game, OSU averaging 318.3 total yards/game and NW averages 377.1 yards/game, and OSU averages 168.7 rushing yards/game and NW averages 165.1 yards/game. NW averages 212 passing yards/game and OSU averages 149.7 yards/game. The teams have both played Ohio (OSU won 26-14 and NW won 16-8), Michigan State (OSU won 45-7 and NW lost 37-20), Purdue (OSU won 16-3 and NW won 48-26), and Minnesota (OSU won 34-21 and NW won 24-17.) In those games the main comparison to draw would be that OSU dominated Michigan State, while Nortwestern lost to MSU. OSU benefited off a 5-0 turnover margin, while NW likely lost due to a 0-3 turnover margin. OSU limited the potent rushing attack of MSU to 52 yards, while NW allowed 128 yards.

This game will likely come down to the running game, mostly due the cold rain which is expected. OSU has a huge advantage in this category with a scrambling Pryor and the power rushing of Beanie. NW will struggle to run the ball as they are essentially on their third team RB, and if QB Bacher plays, he will not be 100% and his running will be limited. Backup QB Kafka could be put in during running situations. Both teams limit teams to close to 100 yards/game on the ground.

Look for Pryor to limit his throws, and instead hand off the ball or tuck it and run. Beanie will not face the same type of D as seen in the PSU game, which shut him down. The PSU game was one of the few times I have seen Beanie struggle in a big game. OSU should be ok in this game, but don't expect a typical blow out, as NW is a different team and the weather will limit the offense. I think OSU will win by 14-17 points.