What to Expect

Pryor appears to be fine after sitting out the second half last week. OL Justin Boren returns after missing a game and defensive lineman Dexter Larimore returns after missing four games. As I said in an earlier post, Aaron Pettrey is out for the season and Devin Barclay won the kicking competition this week. Tressel said he did not suspect that NM State intentionally hit Pettrey from the side, and several of the NM State players apologized after the game.

Penn State is favored to win this game, but only by 3.5 points. The two teams have very similar statistics, both teams average close to 31 points/game, both average over 180 yards/game on the ground, both teams allow 9-11 points on defense, and both teams allow 260 yards/game on defense with similar numbers for rushing and passing. The major difference in stats is that Penn State passes 247 yards/game while OSU passes 189 yards/game. OSU has not quite developed a consistent passing game under the direction of sophomore Pryor, while PSU has senior Daryll Clark who leads the Big Ten in pass efficiency. I think Clark and his group of talented receivers could give the OSU secondary some trouble. The running game of PSU should be kept in check. If PSU is going to win, it will have to be in the air, with some long passes in the mix. Although Iowa showed that a good defense can keep the passing game in check, as Clark was only 12 of 32 for 198 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. Also, Iowa showed that the defense of PSU can give up some points in the fourth quarter, as it allowed Iowa to score 16 to take the lead in the fourth quarter. I think Pryor will be pumped up playing a game in his home state, against a team that beat him last year. The game was close last year, and it was the turnovers by OSU that lead to the loss. Remember, PSU QB Clark was not in the game for the winning touchdown, as he had suffered a concussion, so I don't think Clark comes into this game with any advantage based on the game last year. It has been a consistent theme this season, but if OSU limits the turnovers, the defense will keep the team in the game. Although it is possible Pryor will have a break-out game and put OSU in a comfortable lead. I can see a possibility of OSU pulling away from PSU, but I just don't see PSU taking a commanding lead. OSU can't have a repeat of last year, because FGs will not win this game, especially with an unproven kicker. I think this game is a toss-up if it remains close, but I hold hope that Pryor will have a defining career game.
For what it is worth, in this series the higher ranked team has won 17 of the last 18 games, with the one exception being 2005 when No. 16 PSU beat No. 6 OSU 17-10.