What to Expect

Last week it looked like the OSU/PSU game would be wet, but it looks like the rain should make its way through today and be clear from the night game on Saturday. Let's now take a look at the 10-day forecast...oh wait I mean let's look at the game.

I will start out by saying that Penn State has exceeded expectations, in fact JoePa may get another contract. It seems that whenever the critics back JoePa back into a corner in recent years, saying he is too old or that the game has left him, he fights back by winning games and he continues to lead coaches in career victories. It is sad to consider that JoePa does not have a contract for next season, and the parties are not supposed to discuss the matter until the end of the season.

Yes, Penn State is undefeated, but I am not convinced that this team will finish the season undefeated, as they have games left against OSU, Iowa, and Michigan State. Sorry Indiana, you did not make the cut for consideration in this post. I honestly think Iowa could give them a game, as that team is running the ball well and the defense is doing well. Michigan State will also give Penn State a good game. As I said in the previous post, the non-conference games were not very revealing for PSU, even the Oregon State game. Penn State did dominate Wisconsin, while OSU struggled, but I think it is fair to say OSU's close win deflated Wisconsin at Madison, which may have helped PSU the following week at Madison.

I also question if Penn State knows how to deal with adversity. Last night on the Big Ten Network a Penn State radio personality said Penn State has had to deal with adversity to come back in games against Illinois and Michigan, and I had to laugh. Illinois was up 14-7 for less than a quarter against PSU, in the first quarter, after that PSU was just fine. Michigan did score first and was up 10-7 at the end of the first quarter and did lead 17-14 at the half, but PSU went on to score 32 unanswered points in the second half. I don't exactly think this team has experienced adversity, and they will Saturday against OSU. How will PSU respond when they are losing in the fourth quarter, which is unchartered water for this team? In comparison OSU has dealt with adversity in games against Ohio, USC, Troy, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Purdue. In the Ohio game, OSU had to score in the fourth quarter to come from behind to win the game. OSU lost to USC big time in a high profile game, and they know how that tastes, so they are not very likely to repeat such a performance. In the Troy game, OSU was only up 4 in the fourth quarter, and scored two touchdowns to have a more respectable victory. OSU had to hold off a Minnesota team that would not give up as the Golden Gophers scored fifteen points in the fourth quarter. It took a drive with 1:08 left in the fourth with a true freshman QB to take the lead and win at Wisconsin. OSU only led by 10 against Purdue in the fourth quarter, before hitting a FG. OSU has had the close games, OSU has come from behind late in the game, OSU has had critical drives in the fourth quarter, OSU has had a defense make the necessary stops in the fourth quarter, and OSU has experienced a loss.

Chekwa may be limited in his minutes at corner this week, but replacing him at starter is returning starter Donald Washington, which is not a bad deal for OSU. Jenkins and Chekwa/Washington will keep two of the receivers in check, while the rest of the secondary and LBs will keep the other one to two receivers in this HD spread attack in check, as the receivers for PSU may be quick but they are not big. Just a reminder, Jenkins at corner for OSU is 6-1, taller than the three main PSU receivers, oh and Chekwa and Washington are both 6-0. The two OSU safeties check in at 5-11 and 6-0. Butler is 5-10, Norwood is 5-11, and Williams is 6-0. So by comparison the receivers are as tall or shorter than the OSU secondary, which may not appear to be a big deal but consider that the secondaries of the previous opponents of PSU likely do not have corners at or over 6-0.

I see OSU winning this one, and by at least ten points, which is a bit higher than what I have seen other folks predict, I think the last line I saw was PSU by 2-3 points. Pryor and Beanie will tear up the running game, with Pryor getting 80-110 on the ground and Beanie getting 150-175. Penn State will get 100-150 on the ground total. The OSU running game will open the passing game, although I still think Pryor will only throw 15-20 times for less than 200 yards. Look for the defense to continue to force turnovers and will likely score on one in this game. The only HD that will work Saturday night will be the cameras at the game and the TVs of the fans watching from home.